John Grant takes a look at if Green is a Fad.
Green
is very ‘in’. You can hardly pick up a fashion magazine, visit a
supermarket, watch a car or travel programme, open the business pages
without finding it there. Many corporations are described as jumping on
the bandwagon; GE, HSBC, M&S, Toyota, AOL, NewsCorp. And smaller greener businesses such as Howies, Able & Cole, People Tree, Treehugger and Yeo Valley
are booming. People are talking about a tipping point in public
awareness. Yet there is also a darker side to this new found
fashionability; what if it is just a fad? What if green is ‘in’ this
year and out the next? It happened before in the early 1990s. Can such
hype be sustained?
Of course nobody knows. But we need to recognise that it’s not just a media obsession. Nor limited to the middle classes. Landor
recently found ‘universal support for green thinking’ in a large-scale
survey of US and UK general public; and compared with an identical
survey the year before which found green thinking to be marginal, they
discovered one of the most ‘complete and speedy revolutions in consumer
attitudes ever seen’. That already distances it from passing media
fads, which prove to have no basis in the real world. 3G was hugely
hyped by media and mobile phone industry, and cost the operators
billions for the licenses but there just wasn’t the demand. Contrast
that with solar panels, which are the one of the fastest growing
industries in the world, reaching $20bn last year and forecast to hit
$90bn in 2010. But the point I want to make is the fact that it is
fashionable at the moment gives us no indication as to its prospects,
either way. As the little model will demonstrate at the end of the
article, whether it is a passing fad or a lasting paradigm shift (or
any number of types of culture change inbetween) you would always see a
first few years of hype and fashionability. It doesn’t mean it’s a bubble. It’s just in the news:
Each
of the horizontal arrows describes a different sort of culture change.
All of these are based upon contagion incidentally; an idea spreading
and catching on (or not) over time. But the depth of the response and
its potential longevity vary dramatically, from a year or two, to
geological aeons (I say ‘potential’ because circumstances can change
and social changes can fail). We don’t know which of these levels are
most descriptive of how things are playing out. It’s probably a
combination of all of them, but fashionability doesn’t tell us
anything, it certainly doesn’t say it’s a fad.
THE FAD
Fads
are things that catch on purely because they are catching on; they are
like glitches that result from our contagious human culture. They are
quite arbitrary; for instance a fashion for tribal braiding on the
playground. They soon blow out because they only appeal because they
are new/catching.
THE PHASE
Phases are
cultural markers of time. Yellow is ‘in’ this summer. It will therefore
look dated next summer because it is literally last year’s colour.
Phases can last longer than fads, but they are by definition time
limited.
THE PROJECT
This is a public
mission (like New Britain) or countdown (Y2K bug). Cults are often
founded on projects. These can attract and retain converts for as long
as the mission is either viable or not yet achieved. But they require a
state of special effort and ultimately they never last; either they
fizzle out as failures or indeed (as with CFC bans) they actually
succeed.
THE GENERATION
Each new generation
looks for things which define them. And by definition the next
generation looks for something new. Of course things can come around
again, but in the medium term generations for instance in youth
culture, fashion and music are superceded.
THE STRUCTURAL SHIFT
An
example is the emancipation of women. In the 1920s this was a fringe
movement (the suffragettes) and a fashion (women like Chanel dressing
like men). But in the longer term it’s a new fact of life.
THE PLATFORM
Some
new technologies create permanent change of an emergent sort. The
Internet, the steam engine, the printing press, the Roman road… They
are Pandora’s boxes, there is no turning back. Again at the outset they
appear to be fashions; the Internet was (and it was ushered in by Al
Gore too). In ancient Greek times, logical syllogisms were originally a
craze too.
SOCIAL PARADIGM
Every now and
then a new type of culture, religion, society emerges. It’s a paradigm
shift, a complete break with what went before. It can be stimulated by
a crisis in the old system brought about by some of these other
changes. But it’s more holistic than that; a revitalisation of our
total ways of life. Some think that sustainability is an idea like this.
ECOLOGICAL CONSTRAINTS
We
are painfully aware today that culture is a function of environment.
That there are natural limits and forces well out of our control. The 5
degree increase in temperature forecast would move us into a climate
last seen in the Eocene period, when there were tropical rainforests at
the poles. There could also be a 20m rise in sea levels, super
hurricanes, drought, famine and a widespread social and economic
collapse.
When you read the mounting scientific evidence about
climate change (and the only disagreement is how long it may take) you
realise that the current fashionability of green issues is only a very
initial phase anyway. But it is important, because the cost of tackling
this issue vigorously now is has been estimated as only 1% of GDP (by
the Stern report), whereas (on current trends) in natural disaster
insurance claims alone, climate change would bankrupt the entire global
economy by 2060. Sobering stuff.
Yes the last green bandwagon of
1989 did crash. But in 1989 this was a political cause, filling the
vacuum of the peace movements after the cold war, driven by (very real)
concerns about social justice, toxic waste, labour rights,
deforestation, the effects of globalisation and so on. In human terms,
the last green bandwagon was a mid life crisis – a soul searching over
whether we had the right sort of society and economy. Whereas this
green bandwagon is more like a medical diagnosis of a potentially fatal
illness. Of course many given such a diagnosis go into denial. There is
still no certainty that sustainability will prove sustainable. But it
is different.
My guess is that the current situation is that
some people have ‘got’ the emergency we face and what needs to change
(everything, beyond recognition, very fast). And that many are still at
the early stages of getting caught up in a movement but not a profound
realisation. So that the population distribution would look like
another triangle, inverted.
That might still be okay. The
Russian revolution was achieved by a few loyal Bolsheviks and a lot of
peasants who signed up for ‘Land, Peace and Bread’. The big stories of
today, for instance the big corporate conversions, are often the work
of surprisingly few converts in key positions. And a few activists can
mount an effective challenge, even in less liberal cultures. We don’t
necessarily need the whole world to sign up to little changes that add
up, we could just shut the airports, outlaw waste and inefficiency, and
ration the carbon. And when catastrophes strike that will happen. But
it might be a much happier world, and we might just avoid or at least
moderate those disasters, if it does become an enduring popular cause?
www.brandtarot.com
